Ulf Gerdtham
Professor
HIV/AIDS-GDP Nexus? : Evidence from panel-data for African countries
Author
Summary, in English
To test potential bilateral causalities relation between HIV-AIDS mortality and GDP, we propose a simple Granger noncausality test for heterogeneous panel data models. 44 African countries are selected for annual pooled data from 1990 to 2009. Results are presented for the heterogeneous noncausality hypothesis (HENC), which tests, for each cross-section unit, the nullity of all the coefficients of the lagged explanatory variable. Bilateral causality relation is observed for 5 countries out of 44 (11% of the countries in our data set). We have 18 countries of unidirectional causality, which 14 are from HIV mortality rate to GDP (43% from total), and 4 are from GDP to HIV mortality rate (9% from total). These results alert for the risk of epidemic trap, initiated first by the deleterious effect of HIV-Aids on countries income.
Department/s
- Department of Economics
- Health Economics
- Centre for Economic Demography
- EpiHealth: Epidemiology for Health
Publishing year
2012-03-29
Language
English
Pages
1060-1067
Publication/Series
Economics Bulletin
Volume
32
Issue
1
Full text
- Available as PDF - 264 kB
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Links
Document type
Journal article
Publisher
Economics Bulletin
Topic
- Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Keywords
- HIV-AIDS
- GDP
- Granger test
- non-causality test
- African countries
Status
Published
Research group
- Health Economics
ISBN/ISSN/Other
- ISSN: 1545-2921