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Ulf Gerdtham. Photo.

Ulf Gerdtham

Professor

Ulf Gerdtham. Photo.

HIV/AIDS-GDP Nexus? : Evidence from panel-data for African countries

Author

  • Amiri Arshia
  • Ulf Gerdtham
  • Bruno Ventelou

Summary, in English

To test potential bilateral causalities relation between HIV-AIDS mortality and GDP, we propose a simple Granger noncausality test for heterogeneous panel data models. 44 African countries are selected for annual pooled data from 1990 to 2009. Results are presented for the heterogeneous noncausality hypothesis (HENC), which tests, for each cross-section unit, the nullity of all the coefficients of the lagged explanatory variable. Bilateral causality relation is observed for 5 countries out of 44 (11% of the countries in our data set). We have 18 countries of unidirectional causality, which 14 are from HIV mortality rate to GDP (43% from total), and 4 are from GDP to HIV mortality rate (9% from total). These results alert for the risk of epidemic trap, initiated first by the deleterious effect of HIV-Aids on countries income.

Department/s

  • Department of Economics
  • Health Economics
  • Centre for Economic Demography
  • EpiHealth: Epidemiology for Health

Publishing year

2012-03-29

Language

English

Pages

1060-1067

Publication/Series

Economics Bulletin

Volume

32

Issue

1

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Economics Bulletin

Topic

  • Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology

Keywords

  • HIV-AIDS
  • GDP
  • Granger test
  • non-causality test
  • African countries

Status

Published

Research group

  • Health Economics

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1545-2921