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Jonas Wallin. Photo.

Jonas Wallin

Senior lecturer, Director of third cycle studies, Department of Statistics

Jonas Wallin. Photo.

Nowcasting COVID-19 Statistics Reported with Delay : A Case-Study of Sweden and the UK

Author

  • Adam Altmejd
  • Joacim Rocklöv
  • Jonas Wallin

Summary, in English

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of unbiased, real-time statistics of trends in disease events in order to achieve an effective response. Because of reporting delays, real-time statistics frequently underestimate the total number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. When studied by event date, such delays also risk creating an illusion of a downward trend. Here, we describe a statistical methodology for predicting true daily quantities and their uncertainty, estimated using historical reporting delays. The methodology takes into account the observed distribution pattern of the lag. It is derived from the “removal method”—a well-established estimation framework in the field of ecology.

Department/s

  • Department of Statistics

Publishing year

2023-02

Language

English

Publication/Series

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Volume

20

Issue

4

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

MDPI AG

Topic

  • Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
  • Probability Theory and Statistics

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • nowcasting
  • prediction

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1661-7827