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Ulf Gerdtham. Photo.

Ulf Gerdtham

Professor

Ulf Gerdtham. Photo.

Predicting Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetes in the Post-UKPDS Era: Longitudinal Analysis of the Swedish National Diabetes Register.

Author

  • Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri
  • Philip Clarke
  • Ulf Gerdtham
  • Peter Nilsson
  • Björn Eliasson
  • Soffia Gudbjörnsdottir
  • Katarina Steen Carlsson

Summary, in English

The aim of the current study was to provide updated time-path equations for risk factors of type-2-diabetes-related cardiovascular complications for application in risk calculators and health economic models. Observational data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register were analysed using Generalized Method of Moments estimation for dynamic panel models (N = 5,043, aged 25-70 years at diagnosis in 2001-2004). Validation was performed using persons diagnosed in 2005 (n = 414). Results were compared with the UKPDS outcome model. The value of the risk factor in the previous year was the main predictor of the current value of the risk factor. People with high (low) values of risk factor in the year of diagnosis experienced a decreasing (increasing) trend over time. BMI was associated with elevations in all risk factors, while older age at diagnosis and being female generally corresponded to lower levels of risk factors. Updated time-path equations predicted risk factors more precisely than UKPDS outcome model equations in a Swedish population. Findings indicate new time paths for cardiovascular risk factors in the post-UKPDS era. The validation analysis confirmed the importance of updating the equations as new data become available; otherwise, the results of health economic analyses may be biased.

Department/s

  • Health Economics
  • Department of Economics
  • Internal Medicine - Epidemiology
  • EpiHealth: Epidemiology for Health

Publishing year

2013

Language

English

Publication/Series

Journal of Diabetes Research

Volume

2013

Issue

2013

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Hindawi Limited

Topic

  • Endocrinology and Diabetes

Status

Published

Research group

  • Health Economics
  • Internal Medicine - Epidemiology

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 2314-6753