Anchoring and subjective belief distributions

Summary, in English

We investigate how the anchoring effect—a well-established cognitive bias—influences subjective belief distributions. While prior research extensively examines the impact of anchoring and other biases on point estimates, their effect on the underlying distribution and its higher moments remains unexplored. Using two pre-registered online experiments (N = 1467) and two elicitation methods, we find that anchoring impacts not just the mean, but also higher moments of belief distributions. Notably, the traditional anchoring effect in means diminishes when eliciting distributions rather than point estimates. We also find that the elicitation method matters: inattentive participants generate spiky distributions when manually entering numbers for many bins, whereas they generate flat distributions using a click-and-drag interface. These findings show that cognitive biases can extend beyond point estimates, and that the elicitation technique may impact results especially among inattentive participants.

• Author: Håkan J. Holm; Margaret Samahita; Roel van Veldhuizen; Erik Wengström
• Department/s: Department of Economics
• Publishing year: 2025-12
• Language: English
• Publication/Series: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
• Volume: 240
• Links: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107304
• Document type: Journal article
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Topic: Economics
• Keywords: Anchoring; Belief elicitation; Heuristics and biases; D73; C91; K42
• Status: Published
• ISBN/ISSN/Other: ISSN: 0167-2681