Historically, the United States has on several occasions asserted Central America, the Caribbean, and South America as its sphere of interest. Since the end of the Second World War, it has sought to destabilize – and at times confront – socialist regimes and to combat the organized crime behind the drug trade.
In connection with the U.S. “war on drugs,” and especially when Panama’s leader Manuel Noriega retained his position of power despite losing a general election, the decision was made to intervene and remove him from office in 1989.
Narco-terrorism
The situation in Venezuela follows a similar pattern in that Nicolás Maduro is portrayed as a narco-terrorist, which is cited as the reason why the United States intervenes and removes him from Venezuela on January 3, 2026.
The U.S. justification for the operation focuses precisely on suspicions of Maduro’s links to drug cartels, but other arguments that are raised include claims that he remains president as a result of electoral fraud, or that control over Venezuelan oil is in fact the driving force.
Maduro is gone, but the rest of the regime remains in power – why?
“Most likely, the United States wants to avoid the kind of social implosion it experienced after interventions in Iraq and Libya. For now, the regime remains in place for 90 days, but what happens after that is largely uncertain and will be decisive for Venezuela’s continued development,” says Andrés Palacio, Associate Professor of Economic History at LUSEM.
Palacio, who himself has a Colombian background, believes that the American intervention may have positive effects, but that it also creates anxiety both in Venezuela and in neighboring countries. He highlights several key issues for Venezuela’s future:
Venezuelan refugees
Will the regime call democratic elections during these 90 days, and will hopeful Venezuelans who are currently abroad return? The country, which has around 30 million inhabitants, is also estimated to have approximately eight million citizens living abroad.
Oil
Venezuela has one of the world’s largest oil reserves, particularly of heavy crude, which is more difficult to refine. However, American companies are leaders in this area because they own the necessary technology for thermal cracking and desulfurization. This is also the basis of what has been a relationship of mutual dependence. The infrastructure built by these companies was damaged by the nationalization of oil resources under former president Hugo Chávez. From the U.S. side, there is therefore a strong interest in reopening opportunities for American companies to operate in Venezuela again.
Drugs
The lead-up to Maduro’s capture stemmed from Donald Trump’s accusations of him as a narco-terrorist, and U.S. forces attacked and sank several vessels suspected of being involved in drug trafficking off Venezuela’s coast before ultimately capturing the president himself.
“Many are happy that Maduro is gone, but the reasons given for the intervention are not credible, and this creates anxiety throughout the region. At present, it has not been proven that Maduro is involved in drug trafficking. Even though some cocaine does pass through Venezuela, the large-scale production takes place in neighboring Colombia. That country also has a president Trump does not like, Gustavo Petro. He is a left-wing politician, but democratically elected. Nevertheless, this creates a threat perception that deeply concerns Colombia,” according to Andrés Palacio.
Politically, two questions continue to hang in the air. Will Maduro’s regime be replaced, or will it continue to govern and retain control of the military? And will the United States take military action against more Latin American countries in the near future—and could that include Colombia, Cuba, or another country in the region?